Numerous global systems humans rely on for survival — including ecosystems, groundwater, insurance and the space industry — are on the precipice of catastrophic tipping points, according to a new report by the United Nations University.  

The report says the world is “perilously close” to triggering these tipping points that could have “irreversible, catastrophic impacts for people and the planet”.

But there is some positive news.

The authors of the Interconnected Disaster Risk report say that by knowing these thresholds are looming, we have an opportunity to avert their worst effects.

To do that we must exploit “positive tipping points” — changes that have cascading and self-perpetuating positive impacts on society, and could bring about the shifts needed to ensure our survival, the authors say.

“Our message with this report is that we are heading towards these tipping points, but the causes that we highlight have to do with our behaviours and our values,” lead author Dr Jack O’Connor says.

“So we have the ability. We have the choice to make.”

The report warns whole societies will have to make “unprecedented” changes to avert disaster, but says the actions of individual people do play a significant role in influencing positive tipping points.

“We must recognise our role within interconnected systems and understand that our actions and choices matter, for better or for worse,” it says.

Walking the ‘cliff edge’

“Some tipping points trigger abrupt changes in our life-sustaining systems that can shake the foundations of our societies,” says the report, authored by five researchers from the UN University in Bonn, Germany.

The report highlights six such points, all of which Dr O’Connor says are highly relevant to Australia.

The six tipping points are:

All of these tipping points are connected, the report explains.

For example, heat can kill plants and animals, which can have a cascading effect on ecosystems, as well as make heat impacts worse by removing shade from trees.

And satellites are now vital for weather forecasting. Without a space industry helping to forecast weather, adapting to extreme weather including extreme heat will be much harder.

“If we lose that ability, yes, we could see many more lives lost,” Dr O’Connor says.

“What we see is that these tipping points, once they pass, can now influence others to pass in ways that we may not expect.”

‘Potential for full chaos’

Adaptation scientist Johanna Nalau, from Griffith University, says some of these tipping points are already being experienced in Australia.

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“Thinking about heat … this year has already been insane. So I think we see the potential for full chaos,” says Dr Nalau, who was a lead author on the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

The new report says measures, such as investing in air-conditioning, can delay those tipping points, but not avoid them entirely.

And even those delaying measures are being implemented poorly, Dr Nalau says.

She says public information about how to manage heatwaves is essential — but that isn’t being made available everywhere in Australia.

The report specifically highlights Australia as a case study of a possible uninsurable future. It’s estimated that more than half a million homes will be uninsurable by 2030 — either because the insurance will be too expensive, or insurers will simply not be offering insurance.

Dr O’Connor, an Australian based in Germany, says the risk of ecosystem collapse is also particularly dire in Australia, as it has one of the worst records in the world for animal extinctions.

‘Unprecedented’ changes needed to avert disaster

Doing more than merely delaying the impacts of these tipping points — and actually avoiding their catastrophic effects — will require “unprecedented” changes to society, the UN report warns.

The solution, it says, is to exploit “positive tipping points”, which can transform society for the better.

Click to explore positive tipping points within grasp

“Similar to other tipping points, positive tipping points have the potential to cascade through our interconnected … systems,” it says.

For example, if plant-based proteins became as good and as cheap as meat, that could trigger widespread use, which would then have cascading effects by reducing livestock farming, reducing greenhouse gases and improving land conservation.

But triggering these positive tipping points for issues such as groundwater or space debris, might be more challenging, Dr O’Connor says.

“A lot of these tipping points relate to things that are out of sight and out of mind, and we need to find a way to make them important to people.”